From crisis to opportunity in China: stepping up digitalisation amid COVID-19

By Margit Molnar, Head of China Desk, OECD Economics Department and Kensuke Tanaka, Head of Asia Desk, OECD Development Centre


This blog is part of a series on tackling COVID-19 in developing countries. Visit the OECD dedicated page to access the OECD’s data, analysis and recommendations on the health, economic, financial and societal impacts of COVID-19 worldwide.


digitalisationDigitalisation as a way to lift growth potential

COVID-19, or the new Great Depression, is likely to have a lasting impact on economies and societies worldwide. Pandemics are shown to be followed by sustained periods with depressed investment opportunities, and/or heightened desires to save (Jorda et al., 2020), thereby reducing potential growth. To mitigate the impact of COVID-19, many governments, in addition to emergency measures to save lives and keep firms afloat, have also adopted investment stimuli. China is among those countries where the composition of stimulus is tilted towards public investment. While continuing to strike a delicate balance between keeping the pandemic under control and resuming activities, it is crucial to accelerate processes that will counter the fall in growth potential. China’s growth potential is set to decrease as the country catches up with more advanced economies and its rapid ageing also weighs on it. However, China can still reap the “reform dividend” with measures that also boost growth in the long term.

Digitalisation is a promising candidate to lift China’s long-term growth potential. Digital technologies are shown to boost productivity (Gal et al., 2019), which is the key to sustainable growth. At the current juncture, introducing digital technologies can also help jumpstart the economy as it creates new jobs and meets new demand (OECD, 2018). Indeed, in the first quarter of the year, it was the IT and software sector growing at over 13% and the financial sector at over 6% (partly thanks to surging online payments), that held up services growth. Continue reading

How China is implementing the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development

 By Xiheng Jiang, Vice-President of China Center for International Knowledge on Development (CIKD)

 

Photo by Robert Bye on UnsplashThe United Nations Sustainable Development Goals Report 2019 shows that, while advances have been made in some areas, monumental challenges remain. The world is not on track to end poverty and millions still live in hunger. People in absolute poverty will remain at 6% by 2030, falling short of the 3% goal. It is also alarming that undernourished people went up from 784 million in 2015 to 821 million in 2017 and 55% of the population have no access to social protection. The report stresses that climate change and inequality are two major challenges, which demand enhanced national and collective action across countries, facilitated by international organizations.

China’s Progress Report on Implementation of the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development (2019) was also unveiled at UN Headquarters in September 2019. This second progress report since the adoption of the 2030 Agenda in September 2015, takes stock of China’s progress in pursuing the SDGs, identifies the gaps and formulates plans for next steps. The report features cases depicting efforts by Chinese governments at all levels, also showing how the private sector and general public are contributing. So, how is China implementing the SDGs through its development policies? China is pushing its sustainable development forward in three key areas; eradicating extreme poverty, building an “ecological civilization” and contributing to global climate and sustainability governance.
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Look East instead of West for the future global middle class

By Kristofer Hamel, Chief Operating Officer, and Baldwin Tong, Research Analyst, World Data Lab

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South City Mall in Kolkata, India

Poverty is declining worldwide. Yet, reducing poverty is not equivalent to a rising middle class. A large share of the world’s population earns between USD 2 and USD 11 a day (in 2011 purchasing power parity). Only once people start earning more than USD 11 do they tend to have enough extra spending power to make purchases that go beyond basic needs and therefore enter the global middle class. First-time middle-class purchases include personal transportation (motorcycles), housing (first-time renting or low-end purchases), finance (first savings account or loan) and education (tertiary).

Over the next decade, middle-class spending power will shift from west to east due to the huge growth in the middle-class segments (USD 11-USD 110 per day) of India and China. The middle classes of these two countries will represent over 83% of their respective country’s spending power, meaning that businesses should consider their tastes and preferences. Combined, the world’s two most populous countries are expected to represent over 43.3% of the global middle class by 2030.
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Normatively weak institutions can be functionally strong: A surprising lesson from China

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By Yuen Yuen Ang, Associate Professor of Political Science at the University of Michigan and the author of “How China Escaped the Poverty Trap


This blog is part of an ongoing series evaluating various facets
of
Development in Transition. The 2019 “Perspectives on Global Development” on “Rethinking Development Strategies” will add to this discussion


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Guangzhou, China. Photo : shutterstock.com

For the past decades, policymakers and development practitioners have clung to the idea that “good governance” is the solution to poverty. If only poor countries could eradicate corruption, enforce laws, hold leaders accountable and achieve a checklist of best practices, their economic and social problems would be resolved.

This thinking, however, runs into a chicken-and-egg problem: in the first place, it’s hard for poor countries to quickly and meaningfully establish good governance. Indeed, if it were easy to achieve good governance, poor countries would have done it long ago.

But if insisting on one-size-fits all good governance is not the solution, then what is the alternative? My research on China’s development reveals a surprising lesson: normatively weak institutions can be functionally strong. Seen through first-world lenses, the norms and structures found in low-income, pre-industrialised countries are often regarded as “weak” or “backward,” that is, as impediments to development. In fact, these institutions can be creatively adapted or repurposed to kick-start development.
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Are women holding up Chinese and African skies?

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By Hannah Wanjie Ryder, CEO, Development Reimagined, and China Representative, China Africa Advisory


Learn more about this timely topic on the upcoming
OECD Global Forum on Development
Register today to attend


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In 1968, Chairman Mao might have proclaimed that women hold up half the sky, but it remains a sad fact that the majority of top African and Chinese politicians are still men. This is also the case for CEOs of state-owned and other large Chinese and African businesses. No woman has been president of any African country since Ellen Johnson Sirleaf stepped down last year, and in a recent study by the World Economic Forum (WEF), China was ranked 77th out of 144 countries in terms of female political representation, and 86th for economic participation and opportunity. Only eight sub-Saharan African countries featured overall in the top 50 of the same index. When I attended the Forum on China Africa Cooperation (FOCAC) in 2015, which has been running since 2000 and tends to be a very government-led affair, only two women were prominent – the head of the African Union Commission at the time Nkosazana Dlamini-Zuma, and Kenya’s then Foreign Minister Amina Mohamed.

But I am now noticing an interesting new phenomenon: Women from all over the world seem to be aiming to shape China-Africa relations.

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Opportunities and Challenges in Southeast Asia, China and India

BannerForumAsiaMobile_ENBy Mario Pezzini, Director, OECD Development Centre, and Special Advisor to the OECD Secretary-General on Development, and Kensuke Tanaka, Head of Asia Desk, OECD Development Centre


Learn more about this timely topic at the upcoming
1st International Economic Forum on Asia
Register today to attend on 14 April 2017!


Mario-KantsukeStrong growth – averaging 6.2% per year – is expected in Emerging Asia (Southeast Asia, China and India) over 2017-21, though trends vary across the region. While growth in China is projected to continue slowing, it will still average 6.0% over the medium term, below the 6.7% forecast for 2016. India, on the other hand, will average 7.3% annual growth in the years to 2021. The ten ASEAN member countries together are forecast to average growth of 5.1%, led by the CLM countries (Cambodia, Lao PDR and Myanmar), which will all see annual growth rates above 7%. Amongst the large ASEAN-5 economies, the highest growth rates are projected for Viet Nam (6.2%) and the Philippines (6.1%) over 2017-21. Singapore and Brunei Darussalam are both expected to see growth of 1.8% in the medium term. Private consumption is expected to continue to be an important driver of growth across much of the region, particularly with slow export growth (Figure 1):  Continue reading

A view into China’s Development: Opportunities, Challenges, Actions

By Li Wei, President (Minister), Development Research Center of the State Council of China

shutterstock_chinaThe increasing economic integration and interdependence of countries around the world constitute the driving force behind common prosperity. In this pursuit, China, as the world’s second largest economy with an economic aggregate exceeding 15% of global GDP, plays a pivotal role. In fact, China’s development will, more or less, impact the development of other countries. So, what is China doing to realise its own domestic development goals that, in turn, can help spur a new round of prosperity for the global economy?

The way forward begins with understanding current realities. China indeed faces some unprecedented challenges. The working age population is in absolute decline as society is aging. Traditional industries, especially low value-added sectors, face serious over-capacity. Ecological and environmental problems challenge the country’s continuous development. Continue reading